The Investment Cycle

Investment markets often move in cycles, between boom and gloom.

The Investment Clock has been around since it was first published in London’s Evening Standard in 1937. While not flawless, the Clock often provides a useful guide for making investment decisions and can be very accurate at predicting what might lie ahead in the economic cycle. The real difficulty is determining exactly where the hand on the Clock should be placed at any given time.

Please see attached link to our brief update which will discuss the investment cycle and where we potentially may be on the Clock.

The Investment Cycle (PDF)

 

Share Market Correction – Hold, Buy or Sell?

Welcome Back Volatility!

Share market volatility, which has been dormant in markets for the past few months, has jolted to life the last week. The US market has concurrently had its worst and most volatile day since 2015, followed by its best day since 2016 despite nothing really happening.

Yes, a one-thousand+ points fall in the Dow Jones Index is headline grabbing stuff, but how does it compare with previous bad days? Since 1980, there have been 37 daily falls larger than the 4% experienced on Monday.

Why has the market sold off?

This week there have been more sellers than buyers. Friday’s sell-off was accompanied by a strong US jobs report, which showed the US economy is expanding faster than expected, and consumer spending and wages are improving. Whilst this is good news, it does mean that interest rates may need to be hiked faster than expected. US interest rates were 0% from 2008 to 2015, they are now 1.5% and heading higher to around 4 or 5%. The only question is the pace of rate hikes.

So are rising rates bad for shares?

Provided inflation is low to moderate (under 3%) and provided interest rates are low (under 5%), interest rate rises are generally good for share prices. It’s important to look beyond the market noise and silly media headlines. In our view, global growth has been running hot and some investors in the market have forgotten that this has been facilitated by large amounts of monetary (interest rate and similar) stimulus, which needs to be slowly withdrawn now that sustained economic growth has been achieved. The removal of stimulus in a measured way is a perfectly reasonable proposition although it has yet again caught the unprepared by surprise. Given rates are going to rise (in the USA) over the coming months we may see further market jitters.

Hold, Buy or Sell?

In the past we have seen similar market jitters when there has been stimulus changes and it’s proven to be a buying opportunity for quality assets , for the patient investor. So our advice is to hold and look to buy. Rest assured we are working very hard for our valued clients to uncover great investment opportunities that the share market volatility throws up!

Review of 2017 and Outlook for 2018

Our aim at Aspirations Wealth Group is to keep our valued clients regularly informed and updated. The purpose of this update is to provide a review of 2017 and our outlook for 2018.

By the standards of recent years, 2017 was relatively quiet. Sure there was the usual “worry list” – about Trump, elections in Europe, North Korea and the perennial property crash in Australia. And there was a mania in bitcoin. But overall it has been a pretty positive year for most investors.

Click here to view ‘Review of 2017 and outlook for 2018’ (PDF)

When will we have the next Financial Crisis?

 

Our aim at Aspirations Wealth Group is to keep our valued clients regularly informed about their portfolios and investment markets.

Aspirations Wealth Group does not overreact to market volatility however, we do want to be on the lookout for the next crisis.

 

In this update we review the following:

* What is a Financial Crisis?

* What do we monitor to show signs of a Financial Crisis?

* The cycle of market emotions

* How often do we have a Financial Crisis?

* When will we have the next Financial Crisis?

* What to do in a Financial Crisis

 

To read this update please click this link: When will we have the next Financial Crisis? (PDF)

Investment Market Update July 2016

Our aim at Aspirations Wealth Group is to keep our clients informed regularly about their portfolio, investments and markets.

 

In our December 2015 update we noted “returns from the average balanced superannuation fund will exceed cash in 2015, but are on track for their softest results since 2011”. This statement was correct. Most equity markets have been range-bound but we have seen sharp sell-offs caused by fears of slowing Asian growth, US rate rises and now BREXIT. However each time they have been tested, the markets have recovered.

 

To read our Investment Market Update for 2016 please click here: Investment Market Update July 2016 (PDF)

 

Strong investment returns from Australian Shares

Aspirations Wealth Group see Australian shares as a key component of many investors’ portfolios. Over the longer term (5+ years) we believe Australian shares generally provide investors with higher returns than other asset classes such as cash or fixed income.

 

In addition to the potential for capital growth, many Australian shares generate income in the form of dividends. They may also offer investors tax advantages through franking credits. This can reduce your overall taxable income depending on your situation.

 

Please click the PDF below for a chart which shows the annual returns from Australian Shares.

Returns from Australian Shares (PDF)

 

Over the past 20 years the annual return from Australian shares has been 8.84% p.a. and there have only been 3 negative calendar years in 20.